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While a growing number of countries have announced their
civilian nuclear energy ambitions over the past twelve months, no other country
is likely to have more of a psychological impact on the nuclear energy picture
than Saudi Arabia. We believe the Kingdom's natural gas and water problems will
lead them to nuclear, sooner rather than later, probably as early as this year.
After our interview with Kevin Bambrough, which resulted in
the widely read article, 'Explosion in Nuclear Energy Demand Coming," we
began more deeply researching Bambrough's conclusion. He believes the
overwhelming growth in nuclear energy will continue to drive the uranium bull
market much higher than is suspected. He believes the uranium renaissance has
gone beyond the envelope of just a mining inventory shortage. We researched
this further during the course of our investigation into uranium and
geopolitics. We were surprised by what we discovered, and continue to be
stunned by how accurate Mr. Bambrough's forecast is likely to play out. We
included the special sub-section, which follows, in our soon-to-be-published, A
Practical Investor's Guide to Uranium Stocks. Below is a sneak preview.
An April 2006 UPI news item confirmed what many have long
believed. It won't be long before Saudi Arabia launches a nuclear project.
Kuwaiti researcher Abdullah al-Nufaisi told seminar attendees in Qatar that
Saudi Arabia is preparing a nuclear program. He said the government was being
urged to launch a nuclear project by Saudi scientists, but had not yet received
the blessing by the royal family. Social, not energy, issues could help the
Saudi royals embark on a large-scale nuclear program.
Of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's 24 million subjects, more
than 40 percent are under 18 years of age. While still manageable, the
country's infrastructure is not prepared to deal with its explosive population
growth. The two biggest problems facing Saudi Arabia are potential water and
electricity shortages. True, its super oilfields may also have peaked in
production and might move into tertiary recovery, but that is unknown. An
Islamic revolution, similar to what Iran suffered in the 1970s is probably
foremost in the King's mind. Civil unrest might come about should his subjects
suffer from insufficient electricity and inadequate water supplies. One need
only look at the widespread electricity shortages Syria experienced in the
1980s and early 1990s.
As reported in the October 14, 2004 issue of Arab Oil and
Gas, the Saudis lag well behind Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab
Emirates in per capita energy consumption. The rate of natural gas consumption,
which produces Saudi's electricity, increased less than Egypt and Syria. Total
energy consumption dropped by 3.5 percent in 1999 and 2000.
The internationally heralded "Gas Initiative" of
1998 was the Kingdom's attempt to lure major western oil companies back into
the country to help develop its natural gas reserves. After major oil companies
spent $100 million in due diligence to evaluate the Saudi natural gas reserves,
the initiative quietly dropped off the world's radar screen. A Shell Oil
executive, whose company is exploring for gas in the country's Empty Quarter,
told Bloomberg Daily Energy News that this was a high-risk venture with a low
probability of finding sizeable reserves. In Matthew Simmons' Twilight of the
Desert, he repeated what he was told by an anonymous senior oil executive, "The
reservoirs are crummy."
While lacking proven uranium deposits, the country's Tabuk
region has low-grade amounts of uranium and thorium. However, Saudi Arabia has
significant phosphate deposits, which some believe could be exploited. The
country's two largest deposits reportedly measure about 750 million metric
tons, averaging between 19 and 21 percent P2O5. Mined by the Saudi Arabian
Mining Company and the Saudi Basic Industrial Corporation, fertilizer plants at
the Al Jubail Industrial City produce about 4.5 metric tons of P2O5 annually.
While extraction of uranium from phosphates can be an expensive proposition,
the phosphates could provide a ready supply of uranium for the country's
nuclear desalination plants. Then, it would be a matter of uranium enrichment,
of which both the Russians and the French would be scrambling to provide the
Kingdom.
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